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– While there are some overnight developments in G10 markets, the ones in local markets seem moreimportant. Thailand in Asia, Russia in Ceemea and Brazil in Latam are in particular focus this week.

G10 Markets: EURUSD posted a hammer pattern with stretched momentum at the 1.3477-1.3521 supportarea. A short term squeeze (possibly only 24 hours) may be seen before further losses later. The USDIndex marginally undershot the 76.4% retracement against the last interim high and could test supports at80.24-26 in the near term.

ASIA GRID: USDTHB, USDMYR, USPHP – The most important development at the start of this week isthe breach of 32.09 on USDTHB. A daily close below there would be a good indication of further losseswhile a weekly close below would confirm the bearish break. A move down to below 31.00 is likely to beseen over the coming weeks. Elsewhere the consolidations seen on USDMYR and USDPHP over the pastweek...

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USD: Heavy data day and Bullard (2016 voter) speaking at 1:30pm. Long USD going into data and speakers. Housing starts (1020k e), Initial Jobless Claims (310k e), Building Permits (1035k e) and Philly Fed (16 e). The bond market is likely to focus on housing data in the wake of Yellen’s testimony. Permits and starts surprise north of 1070k, would be cycle highs – expected...


AUDUSD is testing decent short term supports/pivots at 0.9335-50. A break below there would open theway for a move to 0.9160 which would take us below the 0.9197-0.9210 support area. A close below therewould argue for a deeper move down.

AUDNZD has bounced from support levels at 1.0640-50 and has rallied through the top of the wedgesuggesting further gains in the...


USD: Yellen and retail sales on Tuesday. Yellen more important, market more square going into Testimony than into recent FOMC/data events. Yellen unlikely to roil market yet with big view change. Retail sales (0830 EDT) expected to be solid – consensus headline, 0.6% m/ m; ex autos, 0.5%, core, 0.5%. Not affected by healthcare spending. EM could rally vs. USD, absent further shocks. Fed dovishness offset by...

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Format: 23/07/2014
Format: 23/07/2014

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