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USD: Blockbuster jobs numbers supported USD and we expect this trend to continue ahead of the Fed meeting as interest rate expectations continue to adjust. Today’s focus will be on Fed’s Lockhhart speech and Labor Markets Conditions Index. Lockhart has been dovish, so a shift would be read as indication that center of gravity in Fed thinking is shifting.

EUR: Lighter data schedule ahead of TLTRO auction on Thursday. Should be sensitive to ongoing USD appreciation, but if re-pricing on Fed spills into higher volatility and risk reduction, unwinding of short EUR/EM positions could be small support. Italian downgrade not yet material mechanically, but should refocus investors on political risk into 2015 with polls also showing resurgent Syriza support.

GBP: No major data or events, should trade in line with USD trend. Weale/McCafferty speeches and Industrial production highlights later in the week.


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G10 FX (397 words)

USD: Only second tier data today. Jobless claim is expected to be 295k, in line with the 4 week moving average.

Markets will place with stronger focus on labor report tomorrow. Awaiting any forecast revisions, median forecast is

230, with central range in between 215 and 245k. Market may care...


We should reiterate that we have a medium term bullish USD view. At the same time our road map for markets is very much tied in with the developments seen in late 199 as regular readers would know..

In that respect we suspect we are approaching a “flattening out” of the bullish USD trends before they resume in January. It is therefore interesting at this stage to see a number of targets across FX...


USD: Fischer comments mark a significant USD positive, playing up the positive impact from lower energy prices

and leaning on the more hawkish side of market expectations. This should set the tone for more USD strengthening

on positive surprises from data later this week. Ahead of payrolls, ADP and non-manufacturing ISM in spotlight.

Central ranges at 220-230 and 56.5-58.0 respectively...

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Format: 19/12/2014
Format: 19/12/2014


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