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26.11.14

USD: Mostly second tier data today but given the lack of liquidity, markets could see bigger swings in both directions depending on the data (See cheatsheet on today’s US data). PCE is expected to be 1.5%, consistent with Citi’s estimate. Anything above consensus would dampen fears of imminent disinflation and later Fed liftoff. Consensus on Capital goods orders nondef Ex Air is 1%. Above 3% will be dollar positive but below 0 could see USD capitulation. We also have the final number for Michigan Confidence (09:55EST). USD will be under pressure if it comes out weaker after the disappointing conference board number yesterday; above 90 will be cycle high and above 92 will be superlative.

EUR: Constancio highlighted his position as viewing sovereign purchases as effective should ECB need to accelerate balance sheet growth. This means there may be little to stand in the way of a further flush-out of short positions on the crosses. However, with...

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25.11.14

USD: Today’s GDP revision among the most important releases during the Thanksgiving holiday week. The survey estimate for the second GDP print is 3.3%, a slight downward revision, with the core range in between 2.9% and 3.5%. 3.6% or higher is USD positive. 3% or lower is USD negative. Consumer confidence is estimated to be 96 and print above 98 will be dollar positive. Focus otherwise on...

24.11.14

USD: Tomorrow’s GDP revision among the more important releases during the Thanksgiving holiday week. The survey estimate for the second GDP print is 3.3%, a slight downward revision, with the core range in between 2.8% and 3.5%. Risk may be tilted to the downside, with USD more vulnerable amid the buoyant risk environment. Today’s Dallas and Chicago indices unlikely to generate much...

21.11.14

USD: USD showing surprisingly little sensitivity to data strength overnight, but with few events or speakers ahead of the weekend, some further consolidation may be in store. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, liquidity is likely to become increasingly thin.

EUR: President Draghi is one of several ECB speakers on tap for the European Banking Congress. While it is...

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Format: 27/11/2014
Format: 27/11/2014

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