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13.05.15

USD: The tails on today’s retail sales release are more important than usual. The reason is that the question marks around the US economy center on consumption and GDP growth, and retail sales is the release most directly feeding into these calculations. Consensus is looking for 0.2% MoM and Citi -0.1%. A big positive surprise would be 0.6% or higher; a negative surprise -0.2% or lower.

EUR: EZ Q1 GDP consistent with the projection with slightly soft Industrial production. Greece economy slides into recession as Q1 GDP continues to contract. Politics remains a partial focus, but limited noise from ECB, outside raising ELA, suggests ball in the court of governments.

GBP: UK payrolls rose by 202k, marginally weaker than expected. Weekly earnings ex bonus printed at 2.2% YoY vs. the consensus 2.1% and overall earnings also surprised to the topside. BoE inflation report represents little shift in MPC views despite...

More Latest Stories

12.05.15

USD: Modestly disappointing payrolls reinforces perception on solid trend, but limited pressure on Fed. This presents a favorable environment for carry trades and may be modestly USD-negative given long positioning. Dudley speech in Zurich pointed to uncertainty in economic outlook and lift-off schedule, leading to some selling pressure on USD. Today in US we have NFIB (96 e, central range...

11.05.15

USD: Modestly disappointing payrolls reinforces perception on solid trend, but limited pressure on Fed. This presents a favorable environment for carry trades and may be modestly USD-negative given long positioning. Given elevated expectations on retail sales, there is some risk for this week’s key release to reinforce the trend. Only LMCI today where we are likely see a print above 0 as...

08.05.15

USD: Payrolls now in the spotlight with investors looking for 228k, central range 210 – 250K. Market will also be attentive to unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. An uptick in AHE (est 2.3% yoy) would confirm the robustness in ECI, firming the view of full employment. Strength in these latter components could have a particularly powerful impact in supporting USD. However,...

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Format: 27/05/2015
Format: 27/05/2015