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USD: Keeping the ‘considerable period’ language was viewed as dovish while lifting the ‘dots’ more hawkish. Efforts to talk up the uncertainty surrounding forecasts and the prospect for policy to deviate from expectations however softened the statements more dovish tilt. Now past the FOMC, we expect USD strength to continue in the near term.

EUR: Announcement of the 1st round TLTRO take-up at 10:15BST the primary focus for EUR. A more disappointing subscription than the 100-150bn expectation could be seen as motivating more monetary easing before long and weigh on EUR.

GBP: Uncertainty lingers heading into tonight’s referendum, and bounces likely to be short-lived. Another round of polls overnight showed the race is still indeed very close but still leans to a ‘no’, we estimate around 20% probability of a ‘Yes’.

JPY: Kuroda maintains relatively optimistic tone. Japan government seen lowering...

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USD: Widen stops or trim positions. There are many FOMC balls in the air and spot response may depend on order in which headlines hit. Market expectation now is retain 'considerable time' with some modification in language. Very USD negative if they stonewall and essentially repeat last Statement, but we think it more likely that they acknowledge progress to targets and hint at need for...


– There are few overnight developments in G10 markets. A number of USD-Asia crosses however have tested or are approaching decent levels after the recent bounces. What happens next is likely to beimportant - a breach of the levels highlighted here would suggest further USD strength while a continuedhold would increasingly indicate a consolidation or a turn back down.

USDCNH has...


G10 Markets

AUDUSD continues to trade poorly after the weekly close below support levels. The initial head andshoulders target of 0.8950 is now in sight. Extended losses could see a move to 0.8660.

NZDUSD is now trading below the 200 week moving average (0.8140). As a minimum it should test supportat 0.8052 (if not fall to below 0.79)....

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Format: 19/09/2014
Format: 19/09/2014

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