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23.02.15

USD: Dollar bid across the board overnight. Light on the data front into FOMC Chair Yellen’s semi-annual address tomorrow. Existing home sales (4.95m e, 5.04m p) and Dallas Fed activity index (-4.0 e, -4.4 p) and Chicago activity (0.05 e, -0.05 p). Recent survey data would suggest risks tilted to softer print but these serve as quite modest catalyst. We like reloading on USD longs reflecting an expectation for a positive message from Yellen tomorrow and the view that positions cut into last week’s political noise face reinstatement.

EUR: Joint statement and prospects for a deal enough to push immediate tail risk into the future. Greek proposed reforms expected later today for Eurogroup ratification later this week. German ifo weaker than expected on all measures, with the business climate index at 106.8 (exp. 107.6), the current situation at 111.3 (exp. 112.5) and expectations at 102.5 (exp. 103.0).Push back into EUR short positions could...

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20.02.15

USD: Just Markit PMI this afternoon (53.6 e, 53.9 p), focus on Greece should limit follow-through. Paring back weakness post FOMC minutes, the more limited lineup into Humphrey Hawkins next week is likely to dampen volatility. There seems a good case for adding USD longs with potential for investors to reload on a Greek resolution.

EUR: Eurogroup meeting expected to...

19.02.15

USD: FOMC minutes fell on the more dovish side, focusing on the risks around the central scenario. While jobs data since the meeting suggest a more upbeat tone at present, a more cautious view into Yellen could cap USD gains beforehand. Jobless claims (08:30EST), ahead of the Philadelphia Fed index (10:00EST) are set for release today. 4-week MA of initial jobless claims hovers around the...

18.02.15

USD: Today’s focus on the FOMC minutes may leave USD price action choppy until their release (2pm). Our view is there ahead of Chairman Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony (Tuesday) they may not mark a major break in market dynamics. For the data, industrial production figures at 09:15EST (0.3% e,Citi 0.2%, -0.1% p), with a bias to forecasts to the upside. PPI and Housing data also this...

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Format: 4/03/2015
Format: 4/03/2015

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