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There are three FX levers that may force currencies out of their current doldrums.

  • Investors continue to lowball the US rebound. In ‘Investors fear the Fed …’ below we argue that investor forecasts for today’s durable goods represent a very shallow bounceback from the winter’s weather effects. The y/y decline since December on core durable goods is much sharper than the pickup embedded in the consensus forecast. Similarly looking at the early consensus for April NFP (released May 2) is about 204k, which looks low given the Dec/Jan undershoot.
  • ECB painting itself into a corner. Comments this morning from Draghi and unnamed ECB sources suggest that they know what they take action if the inflation rate surprises to the downside, but it is less clear what they will do if CPI bounces back. (See the two ECB notes below). So far they are willing to say they will act if inflation surprises to the downside, although timing and method remain unclear, but if it doesn’t...

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Today’s main North American macro risks will be Canadian Retail Sales at 8:30AM and US New Home Sales at 10:00AM. For CAD retail sales, the market is looking for 0.5% on headline and ex-auto vs. last month’s upside surprises of 1.3% and 1.0%.

Given the strong retail sales print in the US and rising Consumer Confidence in Canada, our bias is to the upside for today’s print. This is also in line with...


USD Index: Shows a short term double bottom pattern with a neckline and resistance levels at 80.57-61

EURUSD: Still shows a 76.4% retracement against the highs indicating a move down in the short andmedium term. The key pivot is at 1.3673

USDJPY: Has stabilised above good support levels including the channel base and is likely to move...


Improvements in the US data are meaningful, trending higher, and will continue to uncomfortably pressure bond holders into selling ahead of the holiday weekend. The main North American macro risks today will be Canadian CPI and US Jobless claims at 8:30AM. Our economist forecasts a strong CA CPI, which may lend to CAD buying.

Canadian CPI has taken center focus since the update of the BoC’s forecasts...

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Format: 24/04/2014
Format: 24/04/2014

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