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USD: Slightly dovish Fischer speech did not drive a major FX response. With no significant data or Fed events on the immediate horizon, geopolitics could muscle its way back to the center of market focus. We are biased in favor of USD strengthening. Latest JOLTs report (15:00BST) could spur on USD bounce if extends last month’s impressive jump. Retail sales figures tomorrow bigger focus.

EUR: ZEW is biggest data point today. Citi and the market are looking for further deterioration in German investor sentiment on the back of lingering tensions with Russia. EUR could remain vulnerable against USD and GBP ahead of the GDP and HICP data on Thursday.

GBP: Wednesday's inflation report dominates this week’s events. Following recent retracement in UK interest rate expectations hawkishness could have a bigger impact on GBP. Also on Wednesday, labour market data could point at...

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USD: Geopolitics taking a back seat at the start of the week. Fischer speech largely a non-event with only very passing comments relevant to current policy (speech here). Focus shifts to tomorrow’s retail sales, market expectations for steady growth with last month seem to set a low bar for a positive surprise. 0.3%+ on the headline a potential catalyst for additional dollar gains.



USD: Geopolitics is muscling out the Fed as the primary market focus. ‘Pure’ risk off trade spells USD strengthening, with NZD, NOK, CAD and EUR among the most vulnerable currencies. No data of note.

EUR: No change in policy from the ECB, but President Draghi stepped up his jawboning on EUR. This has seen pressure on EUR crosses intensify, with...


USD: Data/geopolitically motivated USD appreciation ebbed overnight. This is likely to prove temporary and we expect these factors to drive a new trend higher in USD. Initial jobless claims headline an otherwise light data schedule, with sub 295 likely needed to be seen as a significant positive shock. Lockhart comments overnight somewhat dovish in light of recent committee comments but...

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Format: 22/08/2014
Format: 22/08/2014

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