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USD: USD strength to continue into Fed. Only second tier indicators today, but release schedule picks up with ADP and GDP tomorrow. Positive surprise from the latter, particularly above 3.2%, could feed more hawkish expectations on the Fed and see sharper USD rally.

EUR: Risks for EUR on the downside ahead of German and EZ inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Ahead of the EU vote today uncertainty about the impact on the EZ from any new sanctions on Russia could weigh on the euro. Spanish retail sales today maybe less likely to drive significant volatility ahead of key US events.

GBP: Ahead of data today, market is looking for a mortgage lending pick-up in in June. Risks for EURGBP on downside ahead of EZ inflation and UK manufacturing PMI later in the week. GBP’s recent underperformance may continue vs. USD, however, going into US data and Fed. Uncertainty about the impact on the UK from any new...

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USD: USD strength to continue into Fed, GDP and NFP. Second tier Markit service PMI (09:45 EST) data expected to pull back to 60. Above 61 very solid, below 58 disappointing but unlikely to be a big market mover. Pending home sales (10:00 EST) a star last month expected to edge up 0.5%m/m, but central market range is +2 to -2. Poor housing numbers so far have not dented USD optimism, but...


USD: Durable goods (13:30) - headline at 0.5% m/m, Citi -1.0%. Expectations all over the place from +2 to -1. Would take over 2% to impress. Nondefense ex air 0.5%, has also been all over the place. Would see anything above 1% here as a USD plus and 0 or lower as a negative. Flat would mean flat in level terms since the March rebound. Typically headline is first driver followed by core....


USD: We like long USD despite absence of Fed speakers, first tier data or anything that makes life particularly interesting. From this afternoon’s initial jobless claims (13:30BST) market 307k, Citi 300k, Beneficiaries and New Home sales Citi in line 2.51m and 475k respectively. Durable goods data tomorrow likely to attract some attention. USD continued to strengthen versus G10 and...

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Format: 1/08/2014
Format: 1/08/2014

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