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USD: Stay long USD. Today’s ISM kicks is the first of the top-tier data risks this week. Market is expecting unchanged at 57, from 57.1p. We think there is good upside risk to this print given strong regional surveys. USD buying has been predominantly concentrated against the EUR and JPY, but could spread.

EUR: Retain short EUR on ECB. We don’t anticipate a change in policy, President Draghi seems likely to hit a dovish tone following his recent Jackson Hole speech. While it’s likely too soon to see material action from the ECB, Citi economists don’t rule out ABS purchases or signals of more broad action before long. GBP: Sidelined given focus on EUR and ECB. Any further broad downward pressure on EUR likely to be associated with EURGBP declines. With Bank of England likely non-event, Thursday’s services PMI will likely be the biggest draw from the UK.

JPY: JPY vulnerable to additional depreciation ahead of BoJ...

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USDCAD posted a bullish outside day on Friday off of the 55 day moving average (one of the best technical indicators on USDCAD all year). A bounce towards the 1.10 area appears likely from here.

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G10 FX (346 words)

USD: A slow start to a busy week for USD with today’s public holiday. Tomorrow’s ISM kicks off heavier data schedule, with pressure points at 56.5 and 57.2 compared to 57.3 in July. We see risks concentrated to upside on release. Stronger data flow could see a wider...


G10 FX (290 words)

USD: Stay long USD and short UST through ISM next week. The US releases Income, Spending, Chicago PMI and Confidence – all of which are forecasted to increase Forecasts for Chicago look to low given the Chicago Nat. Index.


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Format: 2/09/2014
Format: 2/09/2014

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