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21.11.14

USD: USD showing surprisingly little sensitivity to data strength overnight, but with few events or speakers ahead of the weekend, some further consolidation may be in store. As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, liquidity is likely to become increasingly thin.

EUR: President Draghi is one of several ECB speakers on tap for the European Banking Congress. While it is not clear that the speech will mark a major change from the ECB’s recent rhetoric, we still see scope for EUR declines on dovishness since short positioning does not appear to be stretched. With the Eurozone HICP flash estimate in sight, investors could begin to position for December ECB.

GBP: Rochester by-election results overnight - UKIP win the seat 42.1% against 34.8% Conservative. BoE’s Miles speaking over the weekend, but otherwise few events. The minutes indicated potentially three BoE factions, we think Miles sits among the dovish-doves....

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20.11.14

USD: Similar to the BoE minutes, the FOMC’s release was less dovish than markets feared, and yields settled higher in the aftermath. Markets look for 1.6% on headline and 1.7% on core with relatively balanced risks around the number. To some extent, following the minutes, today’s CPI is less of an event given less pronounced fears on disinflation. Subsequently we like getting long USD...

19.11.14

USD: All attention is drawn towards FOMC minutes at 14:00EST. It is likely that the Minutes will hit a somewhat hawkish tone, with more emphasis in inflation concerns than came across in the Statement. However, high bar set by the statement could leave market vulnerable to more dovish spin. Next key risk after FOMC minutes is Thursday’s CPI print (1.6% e, 1.7% p). Would hold back from USD...

18.11.14

USD: PPI 13:30GMT, with market looking for core at 0.1% vs. 0.0% previous, range tightly centered on median. The risk is likely to the downside since there is some possibility for lower energy prices to appear in core inflation through items that embed the price declines. Softish inflation is positive for risk so long as it does not reflect a softer economy, so this outcome would be USD-...

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Format: 24/11/2014
Format: 24/11/2014

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