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29.01.15

USD: Jobless claims and Pending Home Sales round out today’s data. Low tier, but the PHS is a 2-month lead on Existing Home sales for the US. For US data, the focus really remains on tomorrows ECI and GDP figures (3.1% SAAR e, 5.0% p). Fed language on inflation and external risks tapping into market fears on capacity for policymakers to respond to negative shocks. Weak equity performance translating to risk off price action across asset markets and this could fuel USD appreciation in the days ahead. 5y and 7y auctions this afternoon.

EUR: EURUSD likely to take cues from the USD and go lower. Eurozone M3 and Business climate indicator improving overnight and tending to support EUR. German CPI figure this morning (8am) into Eurozone advance print tomorrow. Labor markets are noticeably improving less in Germany. EUR taking a back-seat, despite Greek assets under heavy pressure.

GBP: Nationwide home prices overnight...

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28.01.15

USD: Weak durable goods and concerns on USD drag on corporate earnings should only add to dovish market expectations on FOMC. However, this sets the bar low for a hawkish surprise so there remains risk for USDpositive outcome. Unchanged language or emphasis on continued strengthening in labor markets or positive pass through from lower energy prices would be taken as hawkish.

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27.01.15

USD: Three data points worth following in the US - Richmond Fed (10:00EST), Durable goods and Confidence. The biggest mover however likely durable goods ex-trans (0.6% e, -0.4% p) at 8:30est as it feeds directly into Friday’s GDP print. Below -2% or above 3% on the Core orders would be a surprise and tradable. Consumer confidence rounds out data – where we focus on the jobs gap number (below...

26.01.15

Foreign Exchange: The EUR is weak across the board. The downtrend in EURUSD remains in place andwe are likely to head towards at least the 1.04 area. EURGBP has sustained below the long term trendsupport coming from 2000 and EURJPY has taken out decent supports in the 134 area. It is likely to testlevels below 124. We include updated...

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Format: 30/01/2015
Format: 30/01/2015

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